I offer a simple opinion that I believe that most Internet users would agree with: there are far too many social networking sites online. Who has the time to manage a persona on more than just one or two? It inevitably happens that an invitation to sign up for the latest and greatest arrives in my inbox to join in a "private beta" of a new service that offers "features never before seen on a social networking site." Of course.
I will sign up, claim a URL, throw a few pictures on there, let it sit for a while and then forget why I ever registered in the first place. Here is the cold truth for anyone trying to start the next Facebook or MySpace: it is the number of friends that use the platform, not the technology behind it, that determines success.
MySpace is a good example of this concept. Intrusive flash ads, lousy 1990s-era design and perennially slow performance matter little when it is ranks at or near the top of the most popular sites on the Web. It all is about who uses it, not the platform itself.
Niche social networking sites have sprung up and enjoyed success on the small scale. Most of these sites focussed on a very particular demographic (like young adult novel fans) or built on an existing offline community (like political campaigns).
Pownce is an example of a site that falls into the "also-ran" category. Sure, it was a full-featured site with blogs, photo galleries, public message boards, groups, etc. But what it lacked was an audience that was willing to say "see my profile on Pownce." It really comes as no surprise that after their acquisition by Six Apart today, Pownce will be in closed two weeks.
Social networking as a marketplace has remarkably low hurdles to hop in terms of creating and maintaining. A developer, a framework and a leased server farm are all one really needs to get into the game. You can even skip all of that and use a pre-built service like Ning. But advertisers and investors will not come calling until after you cross the 1-2 million member mark, particularly when their content can get higher visibility with Facebook's 120 million users.
Success in this arena is a very tall order.