Stephen Yeargin

It has been called “the most important election of our time” by both presidential campaigns and countless commentators. Whether this mantle has been earned might be up for debate, but it certainly has helped the network news improve its ratings among the core marketing demographics. The frenzy of the campaign has been an ongoing story for well over a year, almost back to the 2006 mid-term elections. Whether this is the most “important” election of our time really depends on what direction the country finds itself headed.

This election cycle has given us at least one key ingredient toward making it an important choice: contrast. The ideological differences between both major parties has never been more evident nor the gulf between their positions so wide.

I disagree with the notion that the Office of the President is insignificant compared to what happens in Congress. The President has one tool at his disposal that no other branch has: a direct audience with the American people. If the Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader or even the Vice President holds a press conference, they are fighting with television schedules and our notoriously short attention spans. The President, on the other hand, can preempt “Dancing with the Stars” with as little as a few hours notice. It is a very relevant office because no other pulpit has such a direct effect on public opinion.

A few predictions and observations

All signs, from early voting tallies and tracking polls, suggest that Sen. Barack Obama will carry the day on Tuesday. My electoral map has that happening with somewhere between 280-290 electoral votes and a big lead in the popular vote count. He is not likely to win my home state of Tennessee, ending its 30 or so year streak of siding with the victor.

I agree with most that say Sen. John McCain’s campaign ran aground as soon as economic issues began dominating the nightly news. Undecided voters and even many Republicans fault the Bush administration for the current financial crisis, and Sen. McCain could not keep from being saddled with “guilt by association.” McCain was counting on either a major misstep by his opponent or a fast turnaround in the markets to stop the proverbial bleeding. Neither happened.

Sen. Obama has enjoyed high marks in each of his debates, even if both candidates did little to answer the questions given. Obama also enjoyed a sizable campaign war chest because of his decision to forgo public financing. His campaign staff organized rallies that always featured standing-room only crowds and a several that numbered over 100,000 in attendance. His perceived “rock star” status did little to hurt his campaign and much more to appeal to younger voters.

Neither candidate’s choice for Vice President, in my opinion, changed the dynamic of the race. History shows that they seldom do.

As for congressional races, the Democrats will likely increase their majorities in both chambers. I doubt that the Senate breakdown will favor them by the “magic” number of 60-plus to achieve a filibuster-proof majority. Regardless, an Obama administration will likely move through his first 100 days in office with relative ease as he lays the groundwork for his programs. Past that is anyone’s guess.

Looking past Tuesday

So much of our attention has been focussed on these final days of the election that the thought of it being over may catch us by surprise. Partisans and independents have both put off enacting big plans until that mental hurdle of “who will lead the country” has been cleared. For most of us, Wednesday will look no different than Monday, but it might make a world of difference as to how we plan big purchases or life changes. Businesses of all sizes have a vested interest in finding out whose tax plan will come to be.

As I said before, there is a good chance that Tennessee will find itself on the short end of the ballot when it comes to selecting the next president. I have a great deal of confidence that the vast majority of Tennesseans will exercise civility even when they disagree with the policies put forth by the candidate for which they did not cast their ballot. Ours is truly a great country that allows for, and even encourages, dissent with our elected officials.

There might even be a few out there that cannot wait until 2012. I think I need a break.